Mine Safety and Health Administration: Early Detection Project

The Challenge: The Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) is interested in predicting at an early stage which mine operators and contractors will fail to pay their fines from inspection violations. Early detection of these operators will enable MSHA to choose the appropriate action to enforce timely payment. MSHA hopes this will incentivize operating firms to uphold safety and health standards to avoid future violations and penalties. Enforcement of penalties also provides funds to implement and maintain health and safety programs.

Summit’s Approach: Summit will merge MSHA’s administrative data with Experian financial data to determine risk scores for each violation and operator. Scores will be determined based on logistic regression (which will predict the probability of severe delinquency) and survival analysis (which will predict the median time to payment).

The Excel Working Tool: MSHA can use Summit’s tool to input new data and generate risk scores periodically.

Violator-level risk scores