At Summit, we provide our clients with data-driven insights, typically basing our results on readily available historical data. We use these data to build models for assessing policy decisions and understanding economic impacts based on what we know has happened and what we think will happen next. Then we combine our judgement with historical information to predict the magnitude of these results. Yet today, many of our clients are scrambling to understand the most likely impacts of COVID-19 on their respective portfolios of business, despite it being an event with few (or any) historical parallels. The question becomes, how do we use historical data and existing tools to determine anything better than a wild guess?